FPList - Aston Villa vs Brentford

Aston VillavsBrentford

Saturday 10 October at 14:003difficulty for AVL3difficulty for BRE

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Schade

BRE · Midfielder · Away

Projected

5.5 pts

Price

£6.2m

Owned

11.8%

Fixture

3/5

xG: 1.52
xA: 0.32
DefCon: 7%
This season: 39 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Kelleher

BRE · Goalkeeper · Away

Projected

3.1 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

6.1%

Fixture

3/5

Best Defender

Schuster

BRE · Defender · Away

Projected

4.2 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

0.3%

Fixture

3/5

Best Midfielder

Schade

BRE · Midfielder · Away

Projected

5.5 pts

Price

£6.2m

Owned

11.8%

Fixture

3/5

Best Forward

Thiago

BRE · Forward · Away

Projected

2.6 pts

Price

£7.8m

Owned

9.1%

Fixture

3/5

Head to head

AVLBRE

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

AVL 26% · draw 23% · BRE 51%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

Medium

3.0 expected goals in total

0–120%
2–345%
4+35%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

AVL17%
BRE30%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
AVL	70%	36%	34%	exactly one
BRE	83%	30%	53%	two or more

Both to score: 58%

AVL · anytime attacking return

N.Jackson · probable27%goal 15% · assist 14%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 15% 14% 1% none
Assists 14% 13% 1% none
Buendía · likely starter21%goal 17% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 17% 16% 2% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none
McGinn · likely starter18%goal 14% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 14% 13% 1% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	17%	16%	2%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

BRE · anytime attacking return

Thiago · likely starter48%goal 46% · assist 3%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 46% 33% 13% none
Assists 3% 3% 0% none
Anthony · probable43%goal 32% · assist 16%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 32% 26% 6% none
Assists 16% 15% 1% none
O.Dango · probable38%goal 9% · assist 32%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 9% 8% 0% none
Assists 32% 26% 6% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	46%	33%	13%	none
Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	32%	26%	6%	none
Assists	16%	15%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	9%	8%	0%	none
Assists	32%	26%	6%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Aston Villa

Pick 1

Manzambi

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.8 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

0.4%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

Buendía

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

3.3 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

Fixture

3/5

Pick 3

Suzuki

AVL · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

3.0 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

1.9%

Fixture

3/5

Brentford

Pick 1

Schade

BRE · Midfielder · Away

Projected

5.5 pts

Price

£6.2m

Owned

11.8%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

Schuster

BRE · Defender · Away

Projected

4.2 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

0.3%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 3

Janelt

BRE · Midfielder · Away

Projected

4.1 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

2.5%

Fixture

3/5

Also in Gameweek 6

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.