Picks

Who to own

Squad questions that need no Team ID. Everything here is projected for Gameweek 1 from public data, and every number is re-derived per fixture rather than reused.

Two elevens under £100.0m

The same optimiser over two different pools: everyone, and only players owned by 5% or fewer. Both obey every real FPL rule - one keeper, max three per club, a legal formation - and neither is proven optimal, because that needs integer programming and a heuristic should not claim otherwise.

The differential eleven costs you 11.8 projected points.

59.0 against 47.2 for Gameweek 1, and average ownership drops from 27.1% to 2.5%. That gap is what you are paying for the chance to gain rank when it comes off - and what you lose when it does not. Which is the right trade depends entirely on whether you are chasing a rank or protecting one, and nothing on this page knows which.

Dorgu appears in both: at 1.7% owned he is a differential who is also simply one of the best picks available.

Every player

Best eleven

Projected: 59.0
Cost: £92.0m
Avg owned: 27.1%
Shape: 3-5-2

PitchList

The number on each disc is our projection for Gameweek 1. Discs carry club kit colours - Premier League crests are licensed, so we do not use them. C marks the strongest projection.

RayaARS · Goalkeeper · £6.0m · 30.9%4.1
GabrielARS · Defender · £8.0m · 26.3%6.2
O'ReillyMCI · Defender · £6.5m · 22.6%4.6
MukieleSUN · Defender · £5.5m · 7.6%4.3
B.FernandesMUN · Midfielder · £12.0m · 48.7%6.7
SakaARS · Midfielder · £9.5m · 10.7%5.9
CherkiMCI · Midfielder · £7.5m · 9.3%5.4
Gibbs-WhiteNFO · Midfielder · £8.0m · 11.6%5.2
DorguMUN · Midfielder · £6.0m · 1.7%4.8
HaalandMCI · Forward · £15.5m · 74.6%6.9
João PedroCHE · Forward · £7.5m · 54%4.9

Chosen from all 515 available players with a projection.

Owned by 5% or fewer

Differential eleven

Projected: 47.2
Cost: £65.0m
Avg owned: 2.5%
Shape: 3-4-3

PitchList

The number on each disc is our projection for Gameweek 1. Discs carry club kit colours - Premier League crests are licensed, so we do not use them. C marks the strongest projection.

MartinezAVL · Goalkeeper · £5.0m · 4.7%3.2
Matheus N.MCI · Defender · £6.0m · 4.8%4.1
BallardSUN · Defender · £5.0m · 3.7%4.1
RúbenMCI · Defender · £5.5m · 1.4%3.9
DorguMUN · Midfielder · £6.0m · 1.7%4.8
EzeARS · Midfielder · £6.5m · 3.2%4.5
O.DangoBRE · Midfielder · £6.5m · 1.4%4.5
MerinoARS · Midfielder · £6.0m · 1.2%4.4
OsulaNEW · Forward · £6.0m · 1.6%4.7
MarmoushMCI · Forward · £7.0m · 0.7%4.5
BetoEVE · Forward · £5.5m · 3.2%4.5

Chosen from 207 players, all of whom have played in this league before. That last condition matters: without it the low-owned pool fills with players nobody owns because nobody has seen them play, whose projections are pure price prior. Those are unknowns, not differentials.

Best value

Points per million last season, filtered to players projected 3+ this week.

Best value. Points per million last season, filtered to players projected 3+ this week.
#	Player	Club	Pos	Price	Value	xP
1	Truffert	BOU	DEF	£5.5m	30.0 pts/£m	3.3
2	Mitchell	CRY	DEF	£4.5m	30.0 pts/£m	3.2
3	Guéhi	MCI	DEF	£6.0m	29.8 pts/£m	4.4
4	Van Hecke	TOT	DEF	£5.0m	29.6 pts/£m	3.6
5	Senesi	TOT	DEF	£6.0m	29.2 pts/£m	4.1
6	Verbruggen	BHA	GK	£4.5m	28.9 pts/£m	3.0
7	Kelleher	BRE	GK	£5.0m	28.6 pts/£m	3.4
8	Tarkowski	EVE	DEF	£6.0m	28.3 pts/£m	4.1

Most likely to return

Chance of a goal, an assist, or a clean sheet - not the size of the haul.

Most likely to return. Chance of a goal, an assist, or a clean sheet - not the size of the haul.
#	Player	Club	Pos	Price	Return chance	xP
1	Calafiori	ARS	DEF	£5.5m	63%	4.0
2	Gabriel	ARS	DEF	£8.0m	62%	6.2
3	White	ARS	DEF	£5.5m	61%	3.3
4	Hincapie	ARS	DEF	£5.5m	60%	3.8
5	Mosquera	ARS	DEF	£5.5m	58%	3.1
6	Haaland	MCI	FWD	£15.5m	56%	6.9
7	Raya	ARS	GK	£6.0m	55%	4.1
8	Arrizabalaga	ARS	GK	£5.0m	55%	1.3

Differentials

Under 5% owned with a real projection. Where rank is actually won.

Differentials. Under 5% owned with a real projection. Where rank is actually won.
#	Player	Club	Pos	Price	Ownership	xP
1	Dorgu	MUN	MID	£6.0m	1.7% owned	4.8
2	Osula	NEW	FWD	£6.0m	1.6% owned	4.7
3	Eze	ARS	MID	£6.5m	3.2% owned	4.5
4	O.Dango	BRE	MID	£6.5m	1.4% owned	4.5
5	Beto	EVE	FWD	£5.5m	3.2% owned	4.5
6	Marmoush	MCI	FWD	£7.0m	0.7% owned	4.5
7	Merino	ARS	MID	£6.0m	1.2% owned	4.4
8	Richarlison	TOT	FWD	£6.0m	1.9% owned	4.4

Set-piece takers

First choice on penalties, free kicks or corners. Free in the API; paid elsewhere.

Set-piece takers. First choice on penalties, free kicks or corners. Free in the API; paid elsewhere.
#	Player	Club	Pos	Price	Duty	xP
1	Haaland	MCI	FWD	£15.5m	P	6.9
2	B.Fernandes	MUN	MID	£12.0m	PFK	6.7
3	Saka	ARS	MID	£9.5m	P	5.9
4	Cherki	MCI	MID	£7.5m	FK	5.4
5	Gibbs-White	NFO	MID	£8.0m	FK	5.2
6	Rice	ARS	MID	£7.5m	FKC	5.0
7	Thiago	BRE	FWD	£8.0m	P	4.5
8	Wilson	LEE	MID	£6.5m	C	4.5
9	Palmer	CHE	MID	£9.5m	P	4.4
10	Isak	LIV	FWD	£9.0m	P	4.3

What that eleven might actually score

4,000 simulated gameweeks. Points are built from components - appearance, a Poisson draw on expected involvements, a clean sheet, a defensive contribution - so the spread is the point, not the average.

Floor (10th pct)39Bad week, not a disaster

Median51As likely above as below

Ceiling (90th pct)65A very good week

Mean51.2The single number others quote

Bars are the share of simulations landing in each point range, 24 to 92 points. The model omits bonus points, cards and saves, so it is biased low - treat the ceiling as conservative.

Transfers that pay back a −4

Popular players whose replacement gains more than the hit costs, summed across the next 6 gameweeks. Only positives are listed.

Hughes→Barkleygains 10.2 over 6 GWs+6.2 after the hit
Mosquera→Guéhigains 9.0 over 6 GWs+5.0 after the hit
Brobbey→Osulagains 8.7 over 6 GWs+4.7 after the hit
Konsa→Ballardgains 7.9 over 6 GWs+3.9 after the hit
Szoboszlai→Cherkigains 7.5 over 6 GWs+3.5 after the hit
Pedro Porro→Guéhigains 7.2 over 6 GWs+3.2 after the hit

Chip timing

Fixture arguments only. Nobody's squad is readable, so this answers "which week has the friendliest schedule", not "which week suits your bench".

Bench BoostlowGameweek 2No double gameweek in this window. GW2 has the kindest schedule overall (mean difficulty 3.00), which is a weaker argument than a double - consider holding the chip.
Triple CaptainmoderateGameweek 2GW2 offers the softest defences to attack - EVE, BRE, MCI have the kindest matchups by our attacking model.
Free HithighHoldNo blank gameweeks in this window, so there is nothing to rescue. Blanks appear later once cup and European fixtures force postponements - hold the chip.
WildcardmoderateGameweek 2Difficulty swings from 3.10 in GW37 to 3.00 in GW2. Wildcarding into the kinder run captures more of it - check the swing column on the fixtures grid for which clubs turn.

Doubles and blanks

Gameweeks where a club plays twice or not at all - the weeks that decide Bench Boost, Triple Captain and Free Hit.

No doubles or blanks in the next 38 gameweeks. The schedule only distorts later in the season, once cup replays and European fixtures start forcing postponements - so an empty result here is the expected one, not a missing feature.

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data. The eleven is a heuristic, not a proven optimum. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.