Start probability

Who actually starts

A model of how likely each player is to be in his manager's eleven, built from how often he has started and what FPL currently says about his fitness. Shown in bands, because the evidence does not support decimal places.

Risks that matter

Expensive, widely owned, and not certain to start - ranked by how many squads the risk actually touches. The cyan bar is modelled chance to start; ownership sits beside it so you can see how widely the risk lands. A cheap defender at 30% affects nobody; a premium forward owned by a fifth of the game is a decision millions of managers have to make.

Players who are already out or suspended are included rather than filtered away. They are not doubts - there is nothing uncertain about them - but a widely owned player who cannot play is the most expensive thing on this page, so leaving him off would hide the very case that matters most.

PlayerChance to startOwned

  1. 1CHE
    Probable31/38 starts
    73%to start
    54%
  2. 2MCI
    Probable29/38 starts
    67%to start
    22.6%
  3. 3ARS
    Probable30/38 starts
    72%to start
    26.3%
  4. 4LIV
    IsakFWD
    Rotation8/38 starts
    41%to start
    11.4%
  5. 5MUN
    Probable31/38 starts
    73%to start
    18.8%
  6. 6ARS
    Probable26/38 starts
    63%to start
    13.1%
  7. 7MCI
    Rotation19/38 starts
    49%to start
    9.3%
  8. 8CHE
    Probable24/38 starts
    61%to start
    12%
  9. 9LIV
    Probable27/38 starts
    64%to start
    12.6%
  10. 10BOU
    Out21/38 starts
    0%to start
    4.5%
  11. 11MUN
    Probable29/38 starts
    69%to start
    14%
  12. 12ARS
    SakaMID
    Probable25/38 starts
    63%to start
    10.7%

Budget players who play

The enabler search. A cheap pick is only worth the slot if he starts - the cyan bar is that modelled chance; price sits beside it. One who plays twenty games costs you a bench place every other week, which is worse than paying more in the first place.

PlayerChance to startPrice

  1. 1BOU
    Likely38/38 starts
    86%to start
    £5.5m
  2. 2MUN
    ShawDEF
    Likely38/38 starts
    85%to start
    £4.5m
  3. 3EVE
    Likely38/38 starts
    85%to start
    £5.5m
  4. 4BOU
    Likely38/38 starts
    84%to start
    £4.5m
  5. 5BHA
    Likely38/38 starts
    84%to start
    £4.5m
  6. 6FUL
    Likely38/38 starts
    84%to start
    £4.5m
  7. 7NFO
    Likely37/38 starts
    84%to start
    £5.5m
  8. 8BRE
    Likely37/38 starts
    83%to start
    £4.5m
  9. 9BRE
    Likely37/38 starts
    82%to start
    £5.0m
  10. 10CRY
    Likely37/38 starts
    82%to start
    £5.0m
  11. 11CRY
    Likely36/38 starts
    81%to start
    £4.5m
  12. 12NFO
    Likely36/38 starts
    81%to start
    £5.0m

The whole league

Where all 573 players sit. The size of the unknown group is the point: a new signing or a promoted club's squad has no minutes in this league, so there is nothing to read and the model says so instead of guessing.

Per-club breakdowns sit on each club page, where the whole squad is ranked together.