Start probability
Who actually starts
A model of how likely each player is to be in his manager's eleven, built from how often he has started and what FPL currently says about his fitness. Shown in bands, because the evidence does not support decimal places.
Risks that matter
Expensive, widely owned, and not certain to start - ranked by how many squads the risk actually touches. The cyan bar is modelled chance to start; ownership sits beside it so you can see how widely the risk lands. A cheap defender at 30% affects nobody; a premium forward owned by a fifth of the game is a decision millions of managers have to make.
Players who are already out or suspended are included rather than filtered away. They are not doubts - there is nothing uncertain about them - but a widely owned player who cannot play is the most expensive thing on this page, so leaving him off would hide the very case that matters most.
PlayerChance to startOwned
- 1CHEJoão PedroFWDProbable4 starts this season59%to start64.9%
- 2CHEPalmerMIDProbable5 starts this season63%to start25.5%
- 3LIVIsakFWDProbable5 starts this season62%to start22.2%
- 4MCISemenyoMIDProbable5 starts this season61%to start15.2%
- 5LIVGakpoMIDProbable4 starts this season58%to start12.2%
- 6ARSRiceMIDProbable5 starts this season59%to start11.5%
- 7ARSHavertzFWDProbable5 starts this season60%to start8.2%
- 8ARSGyökeresFWDUnlikely0 starts this season19%to start3.2%
- 9MCIEnzoMIDProbable3 starts this season72%to start3.6%
Budget players who play
The enabler search. A cheap pick is only worth the slot if he starts - the cyan bar is that modelled chance; price sits beside it. One who plays twenty games costs you a bench place every other week, which is worse than paying more in the first place.
PlayerChance to startPrice
- 1BOUTruffertDEFLikely5 starts this season76%to start£5.4m
- 2LEEAmpaduMIDLikely5 starts this season76%to start£5.4m
- 3BOUHillDEFLikely5 starts this season76%to start£5.5m
- 4EVEBranthwaiteDEFLikely5 starts this season76%to start£5.5m
- 5HULMcBurnieFWDLikely5 starts this season76%to start£5.5m
- 6MCIRúbenDEFLikely5 starts this season76%to start£5.5m
- 7NFOMurilloDEFLikely5 starts this season76%to start£5.5m
- 8SUNXhakaMIDLikely5 starts this season76%to start£5.5m
- 9CRYRichardsDEFLikely5 starts this season75%to start£4.9m
- 10AVLKamaraMIDLikely5 starts this season75%to start£5.0m
- 11BOUSilvaDEFLikely5 starts this season75%to start£5.0m
- 12BREJaneltMIDLikely5 starts this season75%to start£5.0m
The whole league
Where all 667 players sit. The size of the unknown group is the point: a new signing or a promoted club's squad has no minutes in this league, so there is nothing to read and the model says so instead of guessing.
- Likely to start59
- Probably starts194
- Rotation risk30
- Unlikely to start102
- No record yet102
- Out176
- Suspended4
Per-club breakdowns sit on each club page, where the whole squad is ranked together.