FPList - Aston Villa vs Fulham

Aston VillavsFulham

Saturday 31 October at 20:002difficulty for AVL3difficulty for FUL

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Manzambi

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.1 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

0.4%

Fixture

2/5

xG: 0.44
xA: 0.24
DefCon: 0%
This season: 14 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Suzuki

AVL · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

3.2 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

1.9%

Fixture

2/5

Best Defender

Affengruber

FUL · Defender · Away

Projected

3.3 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

0.1%

Fixture

3/5

Best Midfielder

Manzambi

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.1 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

0.4%

Fixture

2/5

Best Forward

Gonzalo

FUL · Forward · Away

Projected

2.7 pts

Price

£6.0m

Owned

4.1%

Fixture

3/5

Head to head

AVLFUL

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

AVL 43% · draw 23% · FUL 33%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

High

3.3 expected goals in total

0–116%
2–342%
4+42%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

AVL22%
FUL17%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
AVL	83%	30%	53%	two or more
FUL	78%	33%	45%	two or more

Both to score: 65%

AVL · anytime attacking return

N.Jackson · probable27%goal 15% · assist 14%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 15% 14% 1% none
Assists 14% 13% 1% none
Buendía · likely starter21%goal 17% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 17% 16% 2% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none
McGinn · likely starter18%goal 14% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 14% 13% 1% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	17%	16%	2%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

FUL · anytime attacking return

Gonzalo · likely starter46%goal 39% · assist 12%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 39% 30% 9% none
Assists 12% 11% 1% none
King · likely starter35%goal 28% · assist 9%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 28% 24% 4% none
Assists 9% 9% 0% none
Bobb · probable30%goal 11% · assist 22%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 11% 10% 1% none
Assists 22% 19% 3% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	39%	30%	9%	none
Assists	12%	11%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	28%	24%	4%	none
Assists	9%	9%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	11%	10%	1%	none
Assists	22%	19%	3%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Aston Villa

Pick 1

Manzambi

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.1 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

0.4%

Fixture

2/5

Pick 2

Buendía

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

3.5 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

Fixture

2/5

Pick 3

Suzuki

AVL · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

3.2 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

1.9%

Fixture

2/5

Fulham

Pick 1

King

FUL · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.7 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

2.7%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

Affengruber

FUL · Defender · Away

Projected

3.3 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

0.1%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 3

Charles

FUL · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.0 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

0.1%

Fixture

3/5

Also in Gameweek 9

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.