Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.4 expected goals in total

• 0–115%
• 2–341%
• 4+44%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• AVL17%
• SUN20%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 67%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

AVL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• N.Jackson · probable27%goal 15% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

• Buendía · likely starter21%goal 17% · assist 5%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	17%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

• McGinn · likely starter18%goal 14% · assist 5%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
  Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

SUN · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• E.Le Fée · likely starter49%goal 34% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	34%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

• Brobbey · probable45%goal 44% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	44%	32%	11%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Xhaka · likely starter24%goal 1% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	1%	1%	0%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none