FPList - Bournemouth vs Sunderland

BournemouthvsSunderland

Sunday 18 October at 13:003difficulty for BOU3difficulty for SUN

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Tavernier

BOU · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.5 pts

Price

£6.1m

Owned

6.8%

Fixture

3/5

xG: 1.70
xA: 0.92
DefCon: 16%
This season: 31 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Roefs

SUN · Goalkeeper · Away

Projected

2.1 pts

Price

£4.9m

Owned

2.4%

Fixture

3/5

Best Defender

Mukiele

SUN · Defender · Away

Projected

2.8 pts

Price

£5.4m

Owned

1.9%

Fixture

3/5

Best Midfielder

Tavernier

BOU · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.5 pts

Price

£6.1m

Owned

6.8%

Fixture

3/5

Best Forward

Evanilson

BOU · Forward · Home

Projected

3.1 pts

Price

£6.0m

Owned

3.2%

Fixture

3/5

Head to head

BOUSUN

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

BOU 43% · draw 24% · SUN 33%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

High

3.0 expected goals in total

0–120%
2–345%
4+36%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

BOU25%
SUN20%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
BOU	80%	32%	48%	two or more
SUN	75%	35%	40%	two or more

Both to score: 60%

BOU · anytime attacking return

Tavernier · likely starter39%goal 27% · assist 16%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 27% 23% 4% none
Assists 16% 15% 1% none
Rayan · likely starter22%goal 15% · assist 8%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 15% 14% 1% none
Assists 8% 8% 0% none
Evanilson · likely starter22%goal 14% · assist 9%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 14% 13% 1% none
Assists 9% 8% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
Assists	16%	15%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
Assists	9%	8%	0%	none

SUN · anytime attacking return

E.Le Fée · likely starter49%goal 34% · assist 23%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 34% 27% 6% none
Assists 23% 20% 3% none
Brobbey · probable45%goal 44% · assist 2%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 44% 32% 11% none
Assists 2% 2% 0% none
Xhaka · likely starter24%goal 1% · assist 23%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 1% 1% 0% none
Assists 23% 20% 3% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	34%	27%	6%	none
Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	44%	32%	11%	none
Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	1%	1%	0%	none
Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Bournemouth

Pick 1

Tavernier

BOU · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.5 pts

Price

£6.1m

Owned

6.8%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

Evanilson

BOU · Forward · Home

Projected

3.1 pts

Price

£6.0m

Owned

3.2%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 3

Adams

BOU · Midfielder · Home

Projected

2.9 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

0.3%

Fixture

3/5

Sunderland

Pick 1

Xhaka

SUN · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.4 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

3.6%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

E.Le Fée

SUN · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.1 pts

Price

£5.7m

Owned

3.4%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 3

Mukiele

SUN · Defender · Away

Projected

2.8 pts

Price

£5.4m

Owned

1.9%

Fixture

3/5

Also in Gameweek 7

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.