Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.6 expected goals in total

• 0–112%
• 2–339%
• 4+49%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• FUL17%
• NEW15%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 70%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

FUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gonzalo · likely starter46%goal 39% · assist 12%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	39%	30%	9%	none
  Assists	12%	11%	1%	none

• King · likely starter35%goal 28% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	28%	24%	4%	none
  Assists	9%	9%	0%	none

• Bobb · probable30%goal 11% · assist 22%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	11%	10%	1%	none
  Assists	22%	19%	3%	none

NEW · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Wissa · likely starter40%goal 39% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	39%	30%	9%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Willock · probable32%goal 25% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	25%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	1%	none

• Barnes · likely starter21%goal 12% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	12%	12%	1%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	0%	none