Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Low

1.9 expected goals in total

• 0–143%
• 2–344%
• 4+13%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• NFO32%
• ARS46%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 37%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

NFO · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gibbs-White · likely starter45%goal 27% · assist 25%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
  Assists	25%	21%	3%	none

• Igor Jesus · probable37%goal 35% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	35%	28%	7%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Ndoye · probable35%goal 22% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
  Assists	17%	15%	2%	none

ARS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Saka · likely starter57%goal 48% · assist 18%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	48%	34%	14%	none
  Assists	18%	16%	2%	none

• Ødegaard · likely starter38%goal 19% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

• Havertz · probable33%goal 28% · assist 7%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	28%	24%	4%	none
  Assists	7%	7%	0%	none