Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.9 expected goals in total

• 0–122%
• 2–346%
• 4+32%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• SUN20%
• LEE29%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 57%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

SUN · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• E.Le Fée · likely starter49%goal 34% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	34%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

• Brobbey · probable45%goal 44% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	44%	32%	11%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Xhaka · likely starter24%goal 1% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	1%	1%	0%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

LEE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Calvert-Lewin · likely starter41%goal 40% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	40%	31%	9%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Bogle · probable22%goal 21% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Stach · likely starter20%goal 16% · assist 5%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	5%	5%	0%	none