Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.4 expected goals in total

• 0–114%
• 2–341%
• 4+45%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• COV16%
• NEW20%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 67%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

COV · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Rudoni · probable40%goal 21% · assist 24%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	18%	2%	none
  Assists	24%	21%	3%	none

• Dasilva · probable19%goal 10% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	10%	9%	1%	none
  Assists	10%	10%	1%	none

• Tchaouna · probable16%goal 9% · assist 7%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	9%	9%	0%	none
  Assists	7%	7%	0%	none

NEW · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Wissa · likely starter40%goal 39% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	39%	30%	9%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Willock · probable32%goal 25% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	25%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	1%	none

• Barnes · likely starter21%goal 12% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	12%	12%	1%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	0%	none