FPList - Sunderland vs Chelsea

SunderlandvsChelsea

Sunday 8 November at 14:004difficulty for SUN3difficulty for CHE

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Rogers

CHE · Midfielder · Away

Projected

4.7 pts

Price

£7.7m

Owned

40.6%

Fixture

3/5

xG: 1.72
xA: 1.23
DefCon: 7%
This season: 29 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Martinez

CHE · Goalkeeper · Away

Projected

2.1 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

4.7%

Fixture

3/5

Best Defender

Lacroix

CHE · Defender · Away

Projected

2.9 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

6.8%

Fixture

3/5

Best Midfielder

Rogers

CHE · Midfielder · Away

Projected

4.7 pts

Price

£7.7m

Owned

40.6%

Fixture

3/5

Best Forward

João Pedro

CHE · Forward · Away

Projected

4.4 pts

Price

£7.7m

Owned

64.9%

Fixture

3/5

Doubtful · 75% chance

Knee injury - 75% chance of playing

Head to head

SUNCHE

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

SUN 35% · draw 22% · CHE 43%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

High

3.5 expected goals in total

0–114%
2–340%
4+47%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

SUN16%
CHE19%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
SUN	81%	32%	49%	two or more
CHE	84%	29%	55%	two or more

Both to score: 68%

SUN · anytime attacking return

E.Le Fée · likely starter49%goal 34% · assist 23%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 34% 27% 6% none
Assists 23% 20% 3% none
Brobbey · probable45%goal 44% · assist 2%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 44% 32% 11% none
Assists 2% 2% 0% none
Xhaka · likely starter24%goal 1% · assist 23%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 1% 1% 0% none
Assists 23% 20% 3% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	34%	27%	6%	none
Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	44%	32%	11%	none
Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	1%	1%	0%	none
Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

CHE · anytime attacking return

João Pedro · probable45%goal 42% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 42% 32% 11% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none
Rogers · likely starter44%goal 29% · assist 21%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 29% 24% 5% none
Assists 21% 19% 2% none
Welbeck · probable41%goal 0% · assist 41%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 0% 0% 0% none
Assists 41% 31% 10% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	42%	32%	11%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
Assists	21%	19%	2%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
Assists	41%	31%	10%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Sunderland

Pick 1

Xhaka

SUN · Midfielder · Home

Projected

3.2 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

3.6%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 2

E.Le Fée

SUN · Midfielder · Home

Projected

2.9 pts

Price

£5.7m

Owned

3.4%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 3

Mukiele

SUN · Defender · Home

Projected

2.6 pts

Price

£5.4m

Owned

1.9%

Fixture

4/5

Chelsea

Pick 1

Rogers

CHE · Midfielder · Away

Projected

4.7 pts

Price

£7.7m

Owned

40.6%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

João Pedro

CHE · Forward · Away

Projected

4.4 pts

Price

£7.7m

Owned

64.9%

Fixture

3/5

Doubtful · 75% chance

Knee injury - 75% chance of playing

Pick 3

Palmer

CHE · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.7 pts

Price

£9.7m

Owned

25.5%

Fixture

3/5

Doubtful · 75% chance

Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing

Also in Gameweek 10

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.